It is 11 points more than their positive notes 44

Analysts tend to see la vie en rose. While the season results full swing, many strategists expect revisions down for the future. Not surprising when you look at the history: research professionals tend to be overly optimistic. The gap between their estimates of profits at the beginning of the year and those actually published is 8.7, on average over the past 15 years, according to data of PrimeView, on the European wide index, Stoxx 600. The gap is even more important in times of crisis, since the difference reached 30. In 2008, research professionals had thus to revise their estimates of more than 40! "The acuity of analysts has declined during this crisis." More generally, they are difficult to anticipate recessions: they are often in the extrapolation of the near past, commented Pierre Sabatier, strategist at PrimeView. In short, l es markets are consistently ahead of the consensus.

Same trend in the United States, where they provide for an annual growth of 10-12 of the profits on average over twenty-five years, according to a study of Mc Kinsey, whose title summed up the subject: "the stock analysts: still too"bullish".

The enthusiasm of the specialists is reflected in their recommendations on companies. In Western Europe, their opinions are for more than half (55.8) advice of purchases, only 14.1 of sales, according to StarMine for "Les echos" data on brokerages. It is 11 points more than their positive notes (44.7) in June 2009, then even the market knew a strong rebound.

In June 2008, shortly before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the collapse of the awards, they were also mostly positive, with 54.2 of purchases. Only a quarter of the analysts had a Council of sale on the European banks in summer 2008.

A significant improvement

The optimistic bias is still more marked in Asia (67.4 of purchase recommendations all sectors combined, in June 2010). In the United States, the "sales" (5.3) proportion is twice lower than that of other continents. "A large part of the"neutral"means in fact sell", explains Pierre-Yves Gauthier, co-founder of the bureau of independent research AlphaValue.

Pink glasses of professionals are put on the account of different factors: firstly, the fact that specialists are focused on their own sectors and companies, with difficulties to see the whole of the market. Then, "managers tend to be more sensitive to the recommendations of purchases and the latter generate more commissions, says Pierre-Yves Gauthier. Not to mention that it is more difficult to have good relations and thus information from the management of a company proposed to sell. "This also limits the Organization of the"road shows"of"brokers"to present the company to investors.

However, he and other experts, still see a marked improvement since the excess - and especially the scandals - the end of the 1990s and 2000s. The agreement between the US regulator and American banks (said "Spitzer agreement") set up to punish the conflict of interest, in 2003, analysts have become less positive, show academic studies. Similarly, the directive "abuse of markets" in Europe has helped reduce the favourable recommendations. Banks and brokers have implemented systems to reduce the upward bias for a certain proportion of "sell".