He started his campaign says one of them

Wednesday, March 31 in the evening, at the Elysee Palace, Nicolas Sarkozy prepares to conclude the meeting that it had organized with UMP deputies shattered by the defeat of regional when, at the detour of a sentence, he said his hostility to "multicandidatures" that undermine the right to the next presidential election. At the time the warning is almost invisible in the eyes of most of the elected representatives of the majority so it seems natural to them the "outgoing" 2012, happy theorist of the single application, want be alone in his camp on the starting line. What is not natural, it is that Nicolas Sarkozy was compelled to do this update.

Of course, it is not abnormal that, past the mid-term, while he faces both the "structural" unpopularity to the disappointment of opinion and wear of the power and the "cyclical" unpopularity caused by the economic and social crisis, the President of the Republic must fight Ortega of application in its own majority. This has nothing to very classic. All his predecessors were confronted: Valéry Giscard d'Estaing with Jacques Chirac, Francois Mitterrand with Michel Rocard and - to a lesser extent - with Laurent Fabius, Jacques Chirac with Edouard Balladur... The intention to present loaned to Dominique de Villepin, the high probability of a candidature of François Bayrou, the questions posed by the centrists of Government about the chances of Jean-Louis Borloo and Hervé Morin, this is the ordinary expression of the families of the right, that beat the five-year presidential term. "The deadline draws closer, the right group and less there will be candidates", also wants to believe a little close UMP member of Nicolas Sarkozy.

The small sentence of the head of State is an assertion of authority. She is also an admission of weakness, that taps the right for a few weeks. This admission is that Nicolas Sarkozy has lost - temporarily, perhaps, but maybe step... - its main asset, its motherboard, one which made him invulnerable. It was "better". It could well be unpopular, remained impregnable without adversary to his measure. "There is no better on the market currently", was a year ago Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin. This argument was obvious, even to those who alarmaient to see its popularity stagnate in the low waters of the VeRépublique. In one year, the best student of the political class has lost its lead.

Out of a long period of weakening, the opposition Socialists found credibility in economic and social matters sometimes well above that of the majority in power. It is true on the financing of pensions, health, the fight against unemployment, themes where the right is considered generally better. Overall, 35 of the French questioned late March by BVA for "Les Echos" (our editions of March 31) believe that the PS to power would be better than the right (compared to 21 of a contrary opinion). A year ago, only 15 to 22 of polled (according to the institutes) were of the same opinion. The burst of credibility for the Socialists, however, remains very fragile in the absence of Government, and it is, in large part, of a natural rebalancing. "It was predictable;" "I have never thought to the myth of a President without real opposition or real opponent", relativizes a Minister. The phenomenon was be expected, it surprises by its magnitude and place Nicolas Sarkozy a novel situation, which is not far from that of the challenger. In the wake of the regional, nearly six French out of 10 are now convinced that the left will carry the presidential election of 2012 (1). This reflects a toggle of the opinion, after the toppling of the intermediate election. For a time, the hope has changed sides.

Similarly, right, has Nicolas Sarkozy lost its place of preferred candidate, or natural candidate. He outclassed all others is now reduced to equal with François Fillon when asked the right-wing supporters any competitor would have their preference for 2012. Here again, this phenomenon reflects, in part, a normal balance of the report of institutional force between the Elysee and Matignon, the latter being, "nolens volens", again a stable of presidential ambitions. And analysis to reason a Secretary of State, "the popularity of the Prime Minister is a bit artificial because it owes much, by a play of shadow and light, the unpopularity of President". Is that before hope become "evident" in the eyes of the French Nicolas Sarkozy must first become again to his camp. This is what explains his commitment to receive from now once a month the members of the majority. "He started his campaign," says one of them. A campaign that resembles a primary implied... a single candidate.